日期:2026/03/02   IAE 

Structural Failure of Malthusian Population Theory under Self-Interest Capitalism

A Civilizational Revision Model of Charity Economicism

Frank Chen (陳俊吉)
2017 (Reformatted Academic Edition)   定位：慈善經濟主義文明型經濟學派基礎理論文本之一

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Abstract

This paper argues that the apparent “failure” of classical Malthusian population theory is not the disappearance of scarcity constraints, but the transformation of scarcity into ecological and civilizational risk under modern self-interest capitalism. While technological progress temporarily expanded food supply and production capacity, market systems failed to internalize ecological externalities and intergenerational life-value costs.

The paper introduces a civilizational profit revision function and a Total Life Value Utility function, demonstrating mathematically how uncorrected self-interest maximization generates negative green synergy, diminishing total human life utility, and systemic civilization risk.

A structural reform toward Charity Economicism is proposed.

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1. Introduction

Classical population theory proposed by
Thomas Robert Malthus
argued:

• Population grows geometrically

• Food supply grows arithmetically

• Resource scarcity results in natural correction

Industrial capitalism appeared to invalidate this prediction via:

• Technological productivity growth

• Fossil fuel expansion

• Global supply chains

However, this paper argues:

The failure of Malthus is not demographic — it is ecological and structural.

Scarcity has shifted from food production to:

• Carbon capacity

• Biodiversity stability

• Climate resilience

• Civilizational survivability

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2. The Classical Capitalist Profit Model

Traditional firm decision function:

 

$$\text{Max } \pi = TR - TC$$$$\text{Max }\pi =TR-TC$$

Where:

•  

• $TR$$TR$ = Total Revenue

•  

• $TC$$TC$ = Private production cost

This excludes:

• Ecological Cost (EC)

• Life Risk Cost (LV)

• Intergenerational Risk Cost (IRC)

• Social Systemic Cost (SC)

Thus the true social cost is:

 

$$TC_s = TC + EC + LV + IRC + SC$$TCs​=TC+EC+LV+IRC+SC

But firms optimize only $TC$$TC$, not $TC_s$TCs​.

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3. Green Negative Synergy Mechanism

Define:

•  

• $P$$P$ = Population

•  

• $C$$C$ = Per capita consumption

•  

• $E$$E$ = Ecological intensity factor

Total environmental pressure:

 

$$EP = P \cdot C \cdot E$$$$EP=P\cdot C\cdot E$$

Under fossil-fuel expansion:

 

$$E_{carbon} \uparrow$$Ecarbon​↑

Even if food supply expands, ecological capacity $K_e$Ke​ declines:

 

$$K_e(t) = K_0 - \alpha EP$$Ke​(t)=K0​−αEP

Where:

•  

• $K_e$Ke​ = ecological carrying capacity

•  

• $\alpha$$\alpha$ = degradation coefficient

When:

 

$$EP > K_e$$EP>Ke​

Civilizational instability begins.

This is the modern form of “Malthusian correction,”
but now climate-driven rather than food-driven.

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4. Total Human Life Utility Function

Charity Economicism introduces:

 

$$U_T = f(L_s \times S_v \times L_f)$$UT​=f(Ls​×Sv​×Lf​)

Where:

•  

• $L_s$Ls​ = Living Utility (生活效用)

•  

• $S_v$Sv​ = Survival Utility (生存效用)

•  

• $L_f$Lf​ = Life Meaning Utility (生命效用)

Multiplicative structure implies:

If any component → 0
Then:

 

$$U_T \to 0$$UT​→0

Climate instability reduces $S_v$Sv​.

Environmental degradation reduces $L_s$Ls​.

Civilizational insecurity reduces $L_f$Lf​.

Therefore:

 

$$\frac{dU_T}{dt} < 0$$dtdUT​​<0

Under unchecked self-interest capitalism.

This is defined as:

Diminishing Total Utility of Human Life Value.

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5. Intergenerational Green Cost Transfer

Let:

 

$$GSC_t = EC_t + IRC_t$$GSCt​=ECt​+IRCt​

If firms externalize costs:

 

$$GSC_{t+1} = GSC_t + \beta EP$$GSCt+1​=GSCt​+βEP

Where $\beta$$\beta$ represents delayed ecological damage accumulation.

This forms:

Next Generation Green Social Cost Accumulation Model.

It violates intergenerational fairness condition:

 

$$W_{t+1} \ge W_t$$Wt+1​≥Wt​

Where $W$$W$ is total welfare.

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6. Civilizational Risk Threshold

Define civilization risk index:

 

$$CR = \frac{EP}{K_e}$$CR=Ke​EP​

If:

 

$$CR \ge 1$$$$CR\ge 1$$

System enters irreversible instability region.

This corresponds conceptually to the
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Doomsday Clock framework.

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7. Revised Civilizational Profit Function

Charity Economicism proposes:

 

$$\text{Max } \pi_c = TR - (TC + EC + LV + IRC)$$Max πc​=TR−(TC+EC+LV+IRC)

Subject to constraint:

 

$$CR < 1$$$$CR<1$$

And:

 

$$\frac{dU_T}{dt} \ge 0$$dtdUT​​≥0

Meaning:

• Profit must be net of full civilization cost

• Total life utility must not decline

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8. Population Theory Reinterpreted

Malthus predicted:

 

$$P > Food \Rightarrow Collapse$$$$P>Food\Rightarrow Collapse$$

Modern reinterpretation:

 

$$P \cdot C \cdot E > K_e \Rightarrow Ecological Collapse$$P⋅C⋅E>Ke​⇒EcologicalCollapse

Thus population theory failure is not numerical —
it is structural institutional failure.

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9. Global Green Value Coordination Condition

Let:

•  

• $GVC$$GVC$ = Global Value Consensus coefficient

•  

• $A$$A$ = Collective coordinated action level

Sustainable equilibrium requires:

 

$$GVC \cdot A \ge EP$$$$GVC\cdot A\ge EP$$

Without global coordination:

Local green policy ≠ global stabilization.

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10. Conclusion

This paper demonstrates:

1. Malthusian theory did not disappear — it transformed.

2. Self-interest capitalism accelerates ecological externalization.

3. Total human life utility is structurally diminishing.

4. Intergenerational cost transfer violates civilizational justice.

5. A revised profit function is necessary.

Charity Economicism thus represents:

A civilizational-level structural correction to market economics
for long-term human survival.

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Theoretical Positioning

This work forms:

• Population theory revision under ecological constraint

• Civilizational utility maximization framework

• Green cost internalization model

• Foundation of Civilizational Economics

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